How to use our football tipsters betting tips
If you are new to our football betting predictions and football tipsters then your first port of call could be to learn how you can use our sports betting tips and betting strategy traffic light system in a disciplined manner to spread your football bets to grow and maintain a profitable bankroll. But, first its worth gaining an understanding of how we produce our tips and predictions so you can more effectively use our analytics in your own betting style.
How our football betting Predictions are produced
We use a Poisson distribution model on each fixture to compare a teams attacking strength against a teams defensive strength which is calculated separately for home and away matches. This is done because teams often set up differently and adopt a different mindset when playing away from home. The Poisson distribution model is compared to a teams league’s averages and is used to arrive at a probable number of goals each team will score given their attack and defense strengths and weaknesses. This forms a base scoreline against which we can then apply performance moderators to finely tune the predicted score.
These are the moderators used to fine tune our scoreline predictions:
- Last 5 Results – Current form is measured in the teams last 5 results. A teams confidence is affected positively and negatively by winning and losing streaks so this is taken into consideration by analysing their last 5 results comparatively with their opponents for each fixture.
- League Position – The cream always rises to the top and by the end of the season you will end up with a league table that is accurately reflective of a teams standing within their league. So this moderator has to be factored into any predictive algorithm.
- Win percentages (home and away) – Many teams will set up differently when playing away from home, here we take into consideration a teams difference in performance in home games and away games.
- Goals scored and conceded (home and away) – a similar factor to win percentages if a team sets up more defensively when away from home this will be reflected in their average away goals scored.
- Average points scored (home and away) – This is another area that differentiates a teams performance when playing home and away.
Each of these moderators are used in an algorithm which is applied against our base Poisson model to produce a percentage swing in favour of one team or the other. This percentage swing is gives an indication of how ‘strong’ the prediction is and allows us to grade the predictions.
Statistical analysis will give you an accurate prediction in a perfect world, but, in a perfect world every team will have a perfect attack and defense and all results will be 0 : 0!
Clearly this is not the case and each result can also be adversely affected by each of the 22 players on the pitch, the officials, tactics, weather, managers, team spirit etc…. The list goes on and on – our statistical analysis is a measure of the effects of all of these factors on the results over the course of a season and give a statistical probability of a result and an indication of the strength of that statistical probability.
In any given week Sportswebs are following (and paying for) multiple professional football tipsters on your behalf. The number will vary as football tipsters form fluctuates and we only want to follow those that are currently ‘on their game’ but it is usually 10 -15 different Tipsters. Each of these tipsters will be using their own systems to make their selections, watching team statistics, current performance indicators, keeping abreast of team selections, team spirit, injuries, signings, players form, etc… the list is endless, plus, perhaps integrating the use of an algorithm of sorts into their own selection process. We follow these football tipsters and take an aggregate of their results to arrive at a consensus of opinion among these tipsters before publishing our Green and Amber Tips. We do this because, we know that statistically when 3 or more tipsters are in agreement the average ROI for sport betting increases by around 10%.
We also provide the relevant statistics with each prediction so you can assess the predicted result for yourself and maybe make your own judgement call on the outcome of each game.
Accumulators are built using our statistical analysis of the league table predictions and we use the games with the most statistical probability to meet the requirements of the accumulator in question.
- Green tips – are the fixtures that our algorithm shows as having the greatest statistical probability of resulting in a win home or away – over 80% or the smallest difference between the sides – less than 10% for a draw which are also backed up by a consensus of at least 5 other tipsters.
- Amber tips – are the fixtures that our algorithm shows as having the greatest statistical probability of resulting in a win home or away – between 70% and 80% or the smallest difference between the sides – between 10% and 20% for a draw which are also backed up by a consensus of at least 4 other tipsters.
- Red tips – include our doubles, trebles and accumulators simply because by their very nature accumulators are less likely to come in. However, many people enjoy a punt on an accumulator for the chance of larger rewards so we include these based upon statistics relevant to the accumulator. For example; for win accumulators the games with the highest probability to result in a win are used and for BTTS and over/under accumulators those games where statistically and historically have produced above average scorelines.
Last season our football tipsters tips produced an ROI of 20.4% profit! but remember no-one can guarantee their tips, so we advise how you can use our sports betting tips and betting strategy traffic light system in a disciplined manner to spread your football bets to grow and maintain a profitable bankroll.
Follow our football tipsters tips to the letter, mix n’ match them, use our stats with your own tips…. the choice is yours…
REmember, Enjoy your betting & when the enjoyment stops…stop